FIVE IMMEDIATE REFORMS THAT WILL GUARANTEE TALIBAN STABILITY AND POLITICAL SURVIVAL IN AFGHANISTAN

If Taliban political leadership wants to successfully rule Afghanistan again and maintain some level of peace and stability after being out of power for 20 years, then it has to look into a global mirror and consider implementing some immediate social and political reforms. 

The recent dramatic scenes of the Taliban gloriously grabbing power, district by district, until it entered the capital Kabul seat of the Presidential palace without any resistance from the US backed Afghan government, is one spectacular military and political success, especially considering that the Taliban has been out of power and on the run for the past 20 years, only functioning as a brutal Insurgency movement targeting US NATO coalition and the democratically elected Afghan government under President Asraf Ghani just before he abandoned and fled from Kabul. 

To gain back political legitimacy within and outside the corridors of power in Kabul, and to have any chance of long term political survival as a recognized and stable national government, a new Taliban government will have to urgently consider making some key socio-political inclusive reforms at least in 5 identified areas. 

First, Taliban must be seen to have several ties with Al-Qaeda terrorist group – at least in public. Accused of shielding Al-Qaeda and its founder Osama Bin Laden, a policy that allowed some members of the jihadist group to plan the 9/11 atrocity against the US government is the main reason why the US and her NATO allies invaded , bombed and occupied Afghanistan for almost 20 years. If Taliban wants to sustain itself as a legitimate government in Afghanistan, it must guarantee the international community and the US that it has taken all necessary measures to cut all ties with AlQaeda networks. 

How Taliban achieves this difficult task considering its close operational links with Al-Qaeda for the past two decades is down to the Taliban. But as long as Taliban is associated to or is seen to be held ransom by Al-Qaeda in one way or the other, its political and diplomatic image and international relations will struggle at home and abroad. This could further impact adversely on the already deteriorating economy in Afghanistan.

Secondly and related to the first point, the Taliban will have to demonstrate that it has a counter insurgency strategic plan to prevent other known jihadist groups like ISIS in the Korosan Province or any of their affiliates in the region and globally from using Afghanistan as a safe haven to either hide, train it’s fighters or plan terror activities or to launch attacks in or outside Afghanistan. 

One way of doing this could be that Taliban would actively join and take proactive roles with existing global coalition initiatives targeting terrorist groups and their affiliated networks.

Third, Taliban must be prepared to rebuild lost trust and confidence from many Afghanis – horrific scenes of fleeing Afghans at Kabul international airport with some fallen off foreign departing planes as they take off under desperate circumstances indicates that many Afghanis are still terrified of a Taliban government, uncertain and fearful of what could befall them under Taliban rule. 

Devastating reports of mass murders and suspected security forces or government employees been dragged from their homes and murdered in Kandahar, Many of them in the town of Spin Boldak, on the border with Pakistan, damages further Taliban conservative and brutal style of governance. To reverse this terror scenario, the Taliban has to guarantee complete amnesty and demonstrate that it has a clear and accountable policy framework of inclusivity. 

Equally guaranteed that its leadership will not tolerate command policies that target individuals or government institutions as a revenge or engage in any discriminatory treatment against Afghanis or foreigners who worked for or supported the previous Afghanistan government. A legislative approach could help.

Fourth, how Taliban treats women and girls is a subject that it must change by way of guaranteeing to establish a protection and accountability mechanism for the well-being of all women and girls who wish to engage particularly in education , sports, politics and employment activities at any level. Such a liberal reform will surely guarantee a huge win of hearts and minds of many Afghans at home and abroad.

Last but the not the least, the Taliban must not renegade on a genuine power sharing government with key members of the previous government of Afghanistan and opposition political groups. An inclusive government will save Taliban from internal political challenges by resistant forces.

 It may have been unexpectedly easy for the Taliban to take power from Kabul after 20 years as an Insurgency group – but powerful armed dissident groups that feel entitled but excluded from any power sharing with the Taliban will make governance and stability challenging and complex. Ordinary Afghans will bear the greatest impact as always.

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David Otto

David Otto is the Director for Stepped In – Step Out UK Ltd and a Counter-Terrorism and Organised Crime Expert. He is a Certified Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CAS), a Certified Master Anti -Terrorism Specialist (CMAS) and a programme trainer with the Anti -Terrorism Accreditation Board (ATAB). Twitter @ottotgs Email: David.otto@steppedin-stepout.com.